Video as a percentage of traffic vs. as a percentage of page views

Today I got the following message from someone in our company:

Thought this was interesting (see link below) … if true, that within a few years 88% of Internet traffic will be video views, it makes me wonder what we should be considering for our website. Link Here to REALTOR.com

A good question, but looking deeper, the stat comes from a report by Cisco, here: Cisco VNI Forecast Highlights.

A little math helps us see what traffic vs. views means here.

Cisco says Ultra High Definition will be 14% of video traffic, HD will be 62.1%, and SD video will be 23.9%. Assuming each hour of video is about 1GB for SD, 3GB for HD and 9GB for UltraHD, a weighted average would be 3.362GB per hour of video watched.

Cisco thinks about 18.5 exabytes of video will be viewed each month. This leads us to about 5.88 billion hours of video per month. If an average video is about 30 minutes long (including 2-hour feature films, 25-minute TV shows, and 30-second cat videos), the average video will be 1.681GB and there will be 11.76 billion 30 minute videos viewed in the US each month.

The average web page today is about 1.6MB. In a few years, it might be 2MB. If 12% of all  traffic were web pages and not video, that leads us to 2.445 exabytes of web pages. At 2MB per page, that’s about 1.22 trillion web pages in a month, or 106 web pages per video watched, or 0.94% of traffic.

Depending on how you slice it, videos could be 88% of traffic or 0.94% of views.

The Value of a Super Bowl Viewer vs. an American Idol Viewer

If you were an advertiser, what would you pay to reach 1,000 viewers of the 2009 Super Bowl? How much would you pay to reach 1,000 viewers of American Idol?

This is a question advertisers ask themselves as they go about their media buying planning. A 30-second commercial for the 2009 Super Bowl will cost advertisers $3 million. Assuming this ad will reach about 92 million viewers, the cost for each viewer is about $0.0336 (3.36 cents) or $32.61 dollars to reach 1,000 people.

The same commercial costs advertisers about $700,000 on American idol. On average, American Idol is watched by 30 million people. This breaks down to a cost of $23.33 for each 1,000 viewers.

(For a point of comparison, a commercial running on American Idol at the same cost per viewer as a Super Bowl ad would be $978,300, or almost 40% more.)

I know a lot of beer ads are run on the Super Bowl (Budweiser is running 9 ads for a total cost of $27 million), but I haven’t paid much attention to American Idol ads. I know Coca-Cola is a sponsor of the competition, and I would guess lower-cost cars are advertised on Idol, but beyond that I don’t know what is sold on the show.

My guess is that part of the 40% premium is a higher value on the Super Bowl’s demographic, and another part is that the Super Bowl is watched by many for the ads rather than the game. If a company develops a great commercial, they can get much more value out of the commercial than the airing of the commercial. Think about it. How many other times during the year do people come to the office and talk about the commercials they saw the day before?

Dreaming of the iPhone

Sometimes I’m an early adopter and sometimes I wait a while. With the iPhone, I’ve waited and I’d love to pull the trigger and get one in the next few weeks.

I currently have a Blackberry through T-Mobile that is out of contract and I have a plain old Motorola phone with Verizon. The iPhone would replace the Blackberry and its service.

The pros of the iPhone: Well, it’s cool and it has some great software on it.
The cons of the iPhone: AT&T service isn’t so great in my town, it’s almost twice as expensive as the Blackberry service I have now, and there’s an initial outlay of cash of $200 to $300 (depending on the model) for the phone itself.

As I calculate it, the iPhone would cost me about $2125 over a two-year contract (including the cost of the phone and taxes). If I keep the Blackberry, it would cost about $800 for the service. This is a difference of $1325 over two years, or $55 per month.

The primary question I have to ask myself is, do I get $55 of productivity over the Blackberry out of the phone each month? The Blackberry costs me about $30 per month, or a dollar a day. I can sort of justify the cost of the Blackberry because I get email throughout the day and it has helped me a number of times to save a trip back to my computer to get some information I forgot to bring with me.

Would I get another $2 per day of value from the iPhone? It’s hard to say. I don’t know that there’s one application on the iPhone that makes me say, Yeah, that would save me lots of time/money. I would love to think that there is, but I just don’t see it right now.